Wiz Rating = the net rating shown as a win % against an average team on neutral ice. Net Rtg = goals per game above/below average, adjusted for opponents. SOS = average rating of the opponents faced. Hover a row for its breakdown.
How the rating works
This season only: every team starts level at league average. Nothing from last season and no preseason projection goes in.
Results (45%): the résumé. Regulation win 1.00, overtime win 0.75, shootout win 0.60, shootout loss 0.40, overtime loss 0.25, regulation loss 0.
Goals (30%): margin of victory, capped at 3 goals in regulation. An overtime result counts half a goal and a shootout counts zero.
Expected goals (25%): MoneyPuck's score- and venue-adjusted xG differential per game. Until MoneyPuck has the season, results count 60% and goals 40%.
Opponents and venue: all 32 ratings are solved together, so every result is judged by who it came against and where (home ice is worth 0.25 goals).
Recency: the whole season counts, but the last four weeks count most. A game from two months ago counts about half as much as one from today.
Sample size: each rating is pulled toward average by 12 phantom average games (6 for xG), so a 2-0 start moves a team only a little and the gaps open up as games are played.
Wiz Rating: the net rating converted to a win % with the Pythagorean formula (exponent 2.05, league average 3.05 goals/game).
Arrows show movement over the past week and are the same for every visitor. Tier labels appear once teams average 10 games.
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The HockeyWiz model
How the numbers work
Every game on the scoreboard gets win odds, projected goals and a matchup breakdown. Here is what goes into them, in plain terms, and how we keep ourselves honest.
1Team strength
Built from this season only. Nothing carries over from last year.
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating in four areas, all per 60 minutes: 5-on-5 expected goals, shot attempts, high-danger shots and special teams (power play against penalty kill). The raw numbers come from MoneyPuck.
Pulled toward average early. A hot first week shouldn't make a team look elite, so every rating starts with a set of "phantom" league-average games mixed in: 12 for 5-on-5 expected goals, 8 for shot attempts and 30 for high-danger shots and special teams, since those are rarer events. As real games pile up, the phantom games matter less and less.
Attack meets defence. For each area, a team's attack is multiplied by the other team's defence and divided by the league average. A great power play against a great penalty kill lands near the middle.
2Win odds
The bar on every game card.
We start from each team's projected points percentage in MoneyPuck's season simulations and compare the two teams head to head. Then we adjust for tonight:
Home ice adds about 3 percentage points to the home team (a quarter of a goal in the projected score).
Back-to-backs. A team on the second night of a back-to-back scores about 0.135 fewer goals and allows about 0.135 more.
Goalies. When the starters are known, each one's goals saved above expected adjusts the odds, capped at 0.3 goals so one hot week can't swing a game.
Goal adjustments turn into win odds at about 17 percentage points per goal, the same rate the Power Rankings use. Odds are kept between 15% and 85%, because no regular-season game is a sure thing.
3Projected goals
The "Proj. goals" line under each game.
The matchup model gives each team an expected goal total from the four areas above. Those totals are then lined up with the win odds, so the projected score and the win bar always tell the same story.
During a game, live win probability updates from the score, the time left and the projected scoring rates for the rest of the game.
4Power Rankings
A separate rating, built the same honest way.
Results count 45%, goal margin 30% and expected goals 25%. Every result is judged by who it came against and where, the last four weeks count most, and each team is pulled toward average by 12 phantom games. The full breakdown sits under the Power Rankings table on the home page.
5Keeping score
We grade ourselves in public.
Before puck drop, the win odds and projected total for every game are saved on our server and never changed. When the game ends, the model scorecard on the home page grades them.
PicksHow often the team we favoured won.
Brier scoreAverage squared miss on the odds. Saying 50% every game scores .250. Lower is better.
CalibrationWhen we say 65%, the favourite should win about 65% of the time.
Data: NHL game feeds, MoneyPuck team and player data, MoneyPuck season simulations. Everything is this season only and refreshes through the day.
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