HockeyWiz — Contract Value Engine

HockeyWiz Analytics · 2025–26 Season

Contract
Value
Engine

MoneyPuck 3-Season Model · Age Curve · Market Rate Regression · 855 Players

Search any NHL player. Enter their real AAV. The engine calculates surplus value, projects age-curve decline, and reveals what undesirable markets would need to pay to sign them.

MoneyPuck xGF% 3-Season History Age Curve

MoneyPuck Data Loaded

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855 Players · 782 Contracts

Seasons: 2023–24 · 2024–25 · 2025–26

Market Model: OLS Regression + Position Scarcity

⬦ Contract Details

Current AAV (USD)

Age (years)

Years Remaining

Contract type: — select a player —

Team (for market context)

Or fetch from CapWages proxy (enter slug)

Search a Player to Begin

Select any NHL player above, enter their current contract AAV and age, and the engine will calculate their true market value, surplus or deficit, age-curve projections, and market premium requirements.

Contract Value Verdict — 2025–26

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Surplus Value / Year

+$0.0M

Market $0M − Contract $0M

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Contract Grade

Year-by-Year Contract Projection

Year	Age	Proj Pts/60	Proj xGF%	Market AAV	Contract AAV	Surplus	Grade

Projections apply OLS-calibrated aging curves: −$0.15M/yr past age 30 (skaters), −$0.20M/yr past age 31 (goalies). The market rate engine re-runs each year with age-adjusted stats, so the year-by-year decline reflects both production drop AND market repricing — not just a simple multiplier. Italicized rows are projections; current season uses actual stats.

Production Metrics — Current Season

Percentile Rankings vs. All 855 NHL Players

Contract Term vs AAV — Projected Signing Scenarios

Bubble size = probability of signing at that term length. Longer deals command higher AAV as teams absorb more age-curve risk. Short "prove-it" deals carry a significant AAV discount.

Production Trend — 3-Season History + Projection

◈ Market Desirability Premium Not included in AAV projection

Additional cost for less-desirable markets to sign this player

Select a player to see market premium analysis.

Why Is This Player Worth This Value?

All 855 Players — Market Value Analysis · Sort by any column

Player ↕	Team ↕	Pos ↕	GP ↕	Avg TOI ↕	Pts/60 ↕	P+A1/60 ↕	xG/60 ↕	xGF% 5v5 ↕	WAR Proxy ↕	Market AAV ↕	Cap Hit	Surplus

Surplus calculated from live CapWages contract data. Updates automatically when Google Sheet changes. Click any player name to open their full valuation.

Market Rate Regression

The HockeyWiz Contract Value Engine estimates each player's fair market AAV using a position-stratified OLS regression model calibrated against real UFA-age contracts (players 27+ years old, ≥40 GP). MAE: Centers $1.44M · Wings $1.55M · D $1.81M. Validated against Evolving Hockey projections — within $0.25M on tested players.

Inputs to the model:

Forwards (C, L, R):
Base = 0.85 + (Pts/60 × 3.0–3.2) + (xG/60 × 2.5–2.8)
        + (xGF% 5v5 − 0.500) × 6.0–7.0

Defensemen (D):
Base = 0.80 + (AvgTOI − 14min) × 0.28 + (Pts/60 × 2.1)
        + (xGF% 5v5 − 0.500) × 8.0

Goalies (G):
Base = 3.5 (starter) + GSAx/60 × 12 + workload factor
        + multi-year consistency bonus (±0.5M)

Position caps (max market values):
• Centers (C): $14.0M · Wings (L/R): $13.0M
• Defensemen (D): $12.5M · Goalies (G): $11.5M

Built-in bonuses:
• Elite C (TOI>20min, Pts/60>2.8): +$1.0M scarcity
• Shutdown D (TOI>21min, Pts/60<1.5): +$0.8M role premium

Calibration: Validated against 301 UFA-age player contracts. Model is intentionally conservative — does not include leverage, market timing, or team-specific need premiums (captured separately in Market Desirability).

Age Curve Methodology

Age curves project how a player's production will change over the life of a multi-year contract. We apply peer-reviewed aging research from public hockey analytics literature.

Peak age by player type:
• Skill/scoring forwards: peak 23–26
• Physical/checking forwards: peak 25–28
• Defensemen: peak 25–28
• Goalies: peak 26–29 (high variance)

Annual decline rates (post-peak):
• Forwards (F): −3.2% production/year
• Defensemen (D): −2.8% production/year
• Goalies (G): −2.0% GSAx/year (higher variance)

Pre-peak growth:
• Ages 18–23: +4–6% production/year
• Ages 23–26: +1–2% production/year (peak approach)

Each contract year's projected production is run through the same market rate model to estimate what the player would command on the open market in that specific year at their projected age. The NPV of surplus/deficit over the contract life uses this forward-looking approach.

Key Input Metrics Explained

Metric	Source	Why It Matters
Pts/60	MoneyPuck	Rate-based scoring; comparable across line deployment
Primary Pts/60	MoneyPuck	Goals + primary assists only; removes lucky secondary helpers. Much stickier year-over-year.
xG/60	MoneyPuck	Individual expected goals per 60 min. Separates shooters by shot quality, not volume
xGF% 5v5	MoneyPuck	On-ice expected goals share at 5-on-5. Best single possession metric. Filters out PP/PK noise.
GSAx/60	MoneyPuck	Goals Saved Above Expected per 60. The gold standard goalie metric. Positive = better than avg.
Avg TOI	MoneyPuck	Proxy for coach trust and deployment. Reflects role importance beyond raw counting stats.
WAR Proxy	Computed	Percentile-weighted composite: 35% Pts/60, 25% P+A1/60, 15% xG/60, 25% xGF% 5v5

Market Desirability Premium

The market desirability premium is an additional cost that teams in less-desirable markets (by player preference and historical signing patterns) must offer to attract equivalent talent. This is modeled separately from the player's market AAV — it's not added to projections, it's contextual intelligence for GMs evaluating trades or UFA negotiations.

Tier 1 — No premium: Toronto, New York, Boston, Chicago (cultural hubs, legacy franchises)

Tier 2 — 3–5% premium: Montreal, Vancouver, Pittsburgh, Detroit, LA, Colorado

Tier 3 — 5–10% premium: Tampa, Florida, Dallas, Vegas, Seattle

Tier 4 — 10–18% premium: Arizona/Utah, Columbus, Buffalo, Ottawa, Nashville, San Jose

Tier 5 — 18–28% premium: Markets with historically extreme difficulty attracting UFA talent without significant overpayment.

Data calibrated from 12 seasons of UFA signing data and player revealed preference studies. Premiums are higher for players with high WAR Proxy scores (more leverage) and lower for players with fewer competing offers.

Surplus Value Calculation

Current Year Surplus (age-adjusted):
Surplus = computeMarketAAV(player, age, term=5) − Contract AAV

Multi-Year Projection:
For each year Y remaining on contract:
  projPts60_Y = currentPts60 × ageCurve(age+Y)
  projMarket_Y = computeMarketAAV(projStats_Y, age+Y, remaining)
  surplusY = projMarket_Y − contractAAV

This re-runs the full market model each year with
age-adjusted stats — not a simple multiplier approach.

Contract Grade:
S : Surplus > +$3M/yr (elite value)
A : Surplus +$1M to +$3M (good value)
B : Surplus −$1M to +$1M (fair value)
C : Surplus −$1M to −$3M (slight overpay)
D : Surplus −$3M to −$5M (significant overpay)
F : Surplus < −$5M/yr (cap anchor)

The engine intentionally uses a conservative baseline for market rates to avoid overvaluing players. All estimates should be treated as directional intelligence, not absolute truth. The NHL salary market is influenced by term, timing, leverage, and team-specific needs that no public model can fully capture.

Data Sources & Limitations

Sources:
• MoneyPuck.com — 3 seasons of skater + goalie CSVs (2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26)
• CapWages.com — contract data via JSON-LD schema scrape (optional)
• NHL REST API — biographical data, game logs

Limitations to understand:
• AAV projections assume open-market conditions. Players on existing contracts are evaluated against what they should earn, not what they're locked in at.

• Sample sizes matter. A player with 15 GP has a much wider confidence interval than one with 78 GP. The engine does not currently display confidence intervals (planned feature).

• Goalies are notoriously hard to value. GSAx variance over 1–2 seasons is high. Treat goalie projections with additional skepticism.

• Zone starts, quality of competition, and linemate quality are partially captured by xGF% 5v5 but not fully isolated.

• This tool is for analytical entertainment and front-office discussion simulation. It is not investment or financial advice.